12/7/24NFL 3-2 Last Week 37-21 Season 63%!
1. (10:00am) Lay the points -5 on 10-2 Vikings @ home V. 6-6 Falcons
This game is a little scary but not much. Vikings have won 5 in a row
and will be facing a Falcons squad that has lost their last 3. While
Cousins might be motivated in his return, he will be facing the 5 th best
passing D in the league. Coming off 4 picks against the Chargers in
his last outing, and with Minnesota’s offense (13 th in the league)
pressing the issue, I see Cousins throwing at least two picks.
Darnold has cleaned up his act in the past 3 games (270 YPG, 6
TDs, 0 picks) and Minnesota’s offense should press the pace and
their D force mistakes.
Vikings at home 28-18: Vikings -5
2. (10:00am Sunday) Take +7 on 2-10 Raiders @ 6-6 Bucs
Buy points to +7.5 Raiders
Here are all the reasons to take the Bucs: Bucky Irving, having already
surpassed 1,000 yards from scrimmage on the year and has become one
of the best RBs in the league averaging 5.5 yards a carry. Baker Mayfield
is questionable for Sunday’s game; he participated in a full practice and
says he’ll be good to go. I expect the Bucs to continue to lean on Irving
which will open things up for Mayfield. The Bucs will score in this one.
With Mike Evans playing great since his return in week 12 and Mayfield
doing a great job distributing the ball (11 receivers last week), everything
points to a Bucs easy win. Then we look at their D, who ranks 28 th in
defensive success rate and 27 th in EPA/Play. That will be the factor
Sunday.
Adian O’Connell played great for the Raiders last week throwing for 340
yards and 2 TDs in a heartbreak loss. Interim OC Scott Turner has lit a
fire under the Raiders’ respective butts and they appear to be
rejuvenated and playing with nothing to lose. Raiders have averaged
377 offensive yards in their past 3 games, compared to 280 yards in
their first 9. Both team will score in this one but it’s hard to cover a TD
when you can’t stop the opponents air attack. Raiders D (#5 in yards
allowed) will also be a factor in the game.
Raiders cover as road dogs 31-30: Raiders +7
3. (1:25apm) Lay -4.5 on 10-2 Bills @ 6-6 Rams
What can I say, Bills are just an elite team right now, averaging 29.6
points a game. Josh Allen is in the MVP discussion, but unlike past
years, the Bills are winning leaning on a balanced attack with 127
rushing yards and 225 yards passing a game. Granted, Allen is just
Allen and is completing at 65.7%. The Rams have played gritty and are
fighting for their playoff lives but with Buffalo riding a 7 game winning
streak going 6-1 ATS with notable wins against Miami, Seattle and the
Chiefs. Momentum is the play in this one and the Bills are 20-2 in
December and January games dating to 2020. Rams are 1-4 ATS at
home and average 21 points a game essentially both at home and on
the road. From a handicapping vantage, the numbers and momentum
align to cover ATS.
Bills cover on the road 34-21: Bills -4.5
4. (SNF) Take +4 on 8-4 Chargers @ 11-1 Chiefs
The Chargers are a much better team than their record shows. They
could have easily beat the Ravens in week 12 and their D has allowed
successful plays on only 19% of pass attempts. They have also allowed
first downs on only 12% of pass attempts, both of which are best in the
NFL. Chargers run game and D should be enough to cover on the
road.
Chiefs are the first team in the history of the NFL to win their first eleven
wins by an average of 7 or fewer (6.27) points. KC has beaten
Panthers and Raiders, two teams with 5 combined wins by five or fewer
points. Granted Chiefs are at home and 11-1, but it is the manner
(ugly) by which they have won which points to Chargers covering on the
road. I don’t see this game coming down to the last snap. Chargers
were up 10 points in their first meeting before giving up 17 unanswered
but I don’t see that happening twice. Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their past 6
games and will be facing a Chargers team who are 5-1 ATS in their
past 6.
Chargers cover: 24-22 Chiefs
For more risk averse bettors, buy the line to +5
5. (1:25pm) Lay -2.5 on 5-7 Niners -4 @ home vs. 4-8 Bears
Buy the points to -2.5 (1 point)
When I look at all the games this week, this one makes the most sense
to me. Niners are 3-3 at home (2-4 on the road), they’re pissed about
getting destroyed last week at the Bills and they will be facing a Bears
team who cannot win on the road. Bears are 0-5 on the road. I don’t
see an upset here but the Bears will keep in close. That’s why I
recommend buying the line down a point. I 100% see this as a 3 point
win for the Niners, despite their record vs. a team that has not had a
taste of a road win. Niners have lost 3 straight and the Bears 6 straight.
Niners play better at home averaging 25 points on offense and allowing
21.3. Bears average only 14.6 points on the road.
Add it all up and I have to go with the home field advantage (3) in a
contest of two struggling teams. Bears are struggling based on bad
coaching decisions, bad plays and mental mistakes. Niners are
struggling based on injuries and Shanahan not being to make
adjustments after Niners have gone through their scripted plays. Niners
had 10 Pro Bowl players last years who missed 6 total games
combined. This year those same Pro Bowl Players have missed 33
games combined.
But the team still has talent and home field advantage. I look for a
close game at home in a 3 point win for the Niners.
Niner win a close one: 24-21 Niners