NFL 4-1 Last Week32-16 Season 67%! (Another great 3-1 day yesterday for SE)

Week 12 NFL Picks! 

Are you ready for the full package?

1.(10:00am) Lock of the week!  Lay the points -7.5 on 9-1 Lions at 5-6 Colts

Another win coming by the God of Domes, Jared Goff.  Goff is the best Dome QB in the league and Sunday, we will see more of the same.  Like last week, I see this line as too low.  I see the line at more like -14.5.  Detroit is simply the best and most complete team in football and the best Dome team in the league.  Colts rank 28th in rushing D and 26th in passing D and will be facing the #1 offense in the league (33.6 points a game).  To further make my point, Colts are 21st in offense averaging 21.5.  Albeit offensive production, the Lions are just too explosive, again, in a dome.  Dan Campbell is an astonishing 43-18 ATS as Lions head coach and what makes this game somewhat intriguing is that the Colts are 8-3 ATS.  Too much fire power here!  Campbell believe this year’s team will go down as the best offense in NFL history and it is a compelling argument.  

Lock of the week:  Lions 37-17:  Lions -7.5 covers big!  

2. Bonus pick:  Antithesis of the Steeler game:  Ideal conditions and high scoring game!  Take the over 51 in Lions vs Indy.

3. (10:00am) Lay the points -3.5 on 8-2 Vikings @ 4-6 Bears

This an interesting match-up for me and I ask myself does the market really considers the Bears 6 ½ point dogs at home.  Bears are 4-2 at home, but riding 4 losses.  Vikings are 4-1 at both home and abroad and are riding a 3 game win streak. I see this game as similar to their win last week when they beat the Titans 23-13 at the Titans.  

Vikings give up 17 points a game (4th) and the Bears have lost each of their last 11 games against NFC opponents on a win streak.  This will be a tough bet for some but I trust Minnesota more here. 

Vikings 27-21 on the road in a division game:  Vikings -3.5 or buy ½ point to -3 if more risk averse.  

4. (10:00am) Lay -10 on 7-4 Commanders @ home vs. 3-7 Cowboys

At first glance, I think the line is too high; on second glance, I see this as a pick me up game for the Commanders.  I see Commanders strong coming off a bye and I believe the Cowboys have already quit.  I trust Dan Quinn here who knows Cooper Rush’s tendencies, having spent a couple of years in Dallas.  I seen him exploiting them.  Washington’s D is not great but doesn’t need to be and I see Daniels airing it out on Sunday.  

Washington:  30-14 in the win at home.

5. (1:05pm) Lay -5 on 6-5 Broncos @ 2-8 Raiders

This is a layup for me.  I think this will be a 2 TD win for the 6-5 Broncos, fresh off a blow out win over th Falcons.  Denver is the best road team in the league going 5-1 ATS.  Denver has already beat the Raiders by double digits, who have lost 6 in a row.  Denver’s D is #1 in yards per play and has given up the 6th fewest points in 2024.  

Couple that with Bo Nix, who is playing great football and is showing he has command of the offence and his team.  Raiders rank 29th in the league in yards per play and I just don’t see anything that gives me a gut check on this one.  

Broncos 34-17 @ the Raiders:  Broncos -5

6. (5:15pm) Take +3 7-3 Chargers @ home against 7-4 Ravens

Harbowl is back!  Game of the Week!!  Brother vs. Brother

The MNF Crew will be live at the Atlantis SportsBook for this one!

With Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith likely out, Chargers run heavy offense should shine in this one.  With Jesse Minter in charge of the D, who spent four years with the Ravens and knows all of John Harbaugh’s tendencies, I see no reason to believe the Chargers and Herbert can’t cover this number at home.  

Chargers 30-27 at home in the win:  Chargers +3 plays big in the best game of the week!  

AS ALWAYS GOOD HUNTING!