1-11-25 NFL. 54-29 70% on the season.
Wildcard Weekend It’s all about the Spreads this week! Only four games this week!All games Pacific Standard Times
1. (SAT 1:30pm) Take #5 Chargers 11-6 -2.5 @ #4 10-7 Texans
Paramount +
It is all about the seedings and matchups this week and we have
some great games. Historically underdogs win at least one
wildcard game (SU) dating to the history of the league. I see three
this week but only betting two and only against the spread. I do
believe the Broncos can actually beat the Bills at the Bills. But this
game is all about the Bolts!
Last week, I went 2-3. Not a good week, but hell I’m 71% on the year;
The best professional NFL handicapper in the nation. Yeah...Magic
Mike. Next year, we are charging you for my picks, so take advantage
of this year.
Chargers are riding a 3 game winning streak and Harbaugh is one hell
of a coach and what he has done this year and the remarkable
turnaround in a franchise with essentially the same team. If you are
really successful and smart, you are quirky! If you are really smart and
not successful, you are crazy! Harbaugh is the former!
Chargers are 7-2 ATS on the road facing a 3-5 Texans ATS at home.
Chargers are also 12-5 ATS on the year. This is AFC West Chargers
(#2 behind the Chiefs) with Herbert on a tear, facing the Texans with
their two starting WRs out and an O line giving up 52 sacks on the year
(Worst in league). Also throw in that the Charger have the #1 scoring D
in the league and what does this look like in your mind as a
handicapper or amateur bettor?
Then there is McConkey with 82 catches, 1,149 yards and 7 TDs. Plus
80+ yards in his last three games. Bottom line: I trust Harbaugh,
Herbert and the D against the Texans.
Chargers on the road 28-20
I bought points from -3 to -2.5 but they cover nonetheless
2. (Sat 5:00pm) Lay the points -8.5 12-5 Ravens vs. 10-7 Steelers
Battle of the AFC North with #1 vs. #2 seeds
Amazon Prime
Like I said, this week is about seedings, matchups and lines. I
bought the Chargers down 1⁄2 point and in this one, I bought the
Ravens down from -10 to -8.5. There will be snow early and then it
will clear and will be extremely cold at 22 degrees and feel like 11 but
the field will be cleared and ready to go. Both teams can go in the cold,
but I trust the running game of the Ravens and the dual threat of Lamar
at home! Tomlin is the X-factor, but in this one, like the first game of the
day, I got to go with the Harbaugh effect. Listen, Lamar and Henry will
run and run a lot and that will open the pass game and the play action
run attack against the Steelers. Henry has 1,921 rushing yards and 16
TDs on the year. Ravens know how to score at #3 in the league at 30.5
a game and whatever “monkey on the shoulder” shit Lamar may deal
with, Henry will cover the slack and so will the coaching.
No Zay Flowers, but I don’t care about this one. This game is perfect
for the Ravens. Ravens are due and they win and cover! Henry and
Lamar combine for 200+ rushing yards in the cold in this one.
Remember, Steelers have no momentum and have only scored 13, 17,
10 and 17 in their last four games and their last four losses in them.
The Steelers cannot score enough to keep pace with the Ravens.
Bonus play for a big payout: Anytime TD for both Lamar and
Henry
Ravens 31-19 in the cold
3. (Sun 10:00am) Take the points +10.5 10-7 Broncos @ 13-4 Bills
AFC West vs. AFC East
CBS, Fubo, Paramount +
This is the Hatchet play of the week and the first
underdog to cover! I fully expect this to be a GREAT game! I
believe the Broncos can beat the Bills, but I have them as +4.5.
The line is at -9 Bills, and so I bought to +10.5 Broncos. As the
narrative suggests, I like the line but put some sugar on it to
ensure victories in these four games I handicapped. If you don’t
like it, go play with yourself. I got money on it at 71% on the year as a
professional NFL handicapper. Me and my partner took $400 and
made it into $37K by the end of this year. Can you say that?
Yeah, next year you fuckers are all paying, so take advantage of
this!
#7 in the AFC West vs. #2 in the AFC East and will be a great game at
34 degrees and a 1% chance of precipitation. Great conditions for the
Bills but Denver comes in from Mile High with the best lungs and I
argue the better endurance of the two teams. This is the one game I
see as an upset, but with Allen, it is never an easy handicap to make.
But I do see the Broncos covering in this one, but my suspicion is they
win straight up and here is why: Denver’s D is terrifying! They have the
#1 sack D playing against the God of avoiding sacks in Josh Allen. But
Allen will be tested a lot in this one. Amari Cooper will play in this one
and will be a factor, but not a major one based on the play of Denver’s
D. Sean Payton knows the Bills and I believe he will be the better
coach on Sunday.
Bills are 8-0 at home this season and I expect that will be the case on
Sunday but also can see an upset. Bo Nix and the Broncos are 6-3
ATS on the road and I see Denver’s D, Payton and Nix to cover in
the guaranteed pick of the week!!!
Bills 28-20 or 24-21 at home or the upset Broncos 21-20
4. (SUN 5:00pm) Take the points @ +3.5 12-5 Wash @ 10-7 Bucs
The second road underdog to cover the spread!
NBC, Peacock
When I look at this line, I ask myself is the line reversed? I absolutely
see the Commanders as the better team by at least a TD, so I love this
one!
NFC East at NFC South in what will be a great game and most likely a
shootout but maybe not. I bought the line from +3 to +3.5 but I see the
Commanders both covering and winning straight up.
Bucs have the slightly better stats but Baker is always suspect and
Jayden Daniels is 100% the X factor! 3,568 yards, 25 TDs, 6 rushing
TDs on 9 picks on the year for Daniels. Bucs have won 6 out of the last
7 and I get that and Baker has playoff experience and Daniels does not.
But Daniels, like Lamar, is the X factor in the air and on the run and that
will open up a lot of opportunities for offense. Tampa stacks the box and
I see Daniels exploiting that on Sunday in what I believe will be a win.
Tampa’s offense starts off slow and has to play catchup against the
Commanders. Washington will force 3 turnovers when Baker gets
aggressive and Jayden Daniels delivers the knockout punch once again
in the waning moments! Daniels +300 passing on the day and +40 on
the ground.
Washington 34-20 on the road is my pick!