1-4-25 NFL. 52-26 71% on the season.
Week 18 Picks
Are you ready for the full package?
1. (SAT 1:30pm) Take the points +22 3-13 Browns @ 11-5 Ravens
When I handicap a game, it’s always about the story and the
narrative! Market loves the Ravens and I just don’t! When I look at
the Ravens in certain games, I see the Eagles or the Chiefs or the
Niners and I just see this as a no cover. Some “experts" are seeing
this as a 36-10 Ravens victory and I just don’t. Listen, I love laying
the points when and only when the narrative tells the tale, but not
here. The Ravens are favored by 20 so I took the Browns at +22.
Yeah, I buy 2 points but I ensure a cover and here is why: Ravens
are playing for the AFC North and I get it. But the Browns beat them
in week 8, 29-24, albeit with Jameis Winston (who won’t be playing)
who threw for three touchdowns and the Browns had over 400 yards
on the day. This is a division game and the last for the Browns and I
expect them to compete at a high level, regardless of their record.
Pride is what they play for without Winston and I say regardless of
who is under center, I’ll take my +22 any day!
Listen, I get it, but I also know John Harbaugh. He locks up the #3
seed in the NFL with a win. Not a killing, but a win! I get if Steelers
win and Ravens lose, Ravens will be the #5 seed. So, here is what
will transpire: Ravens will get up 21-10 and then run and cruise to an
easy victory and get the #3 seed 28-10. Harbaugh will run and be
conservative in the win and ensure his peeps are not hurt.
Regardless of who is the under center, the Browns cover.
Browns cover 28-10 Ravens
2. (Sat 5:00pm) Lay the points -2.5 on 8-8 Bengals @ 10-6 Steelers
Game of the week! Points are good on this one in the sweet
spot! Bengals will need help and Steelers seeding will not change
regardless of the outcome in this one. It will be 20 degrees (that’s
why I don’t like the over at 48) and will feel like 0 degrees. This really
comes down to Tomlin vs. Burrows! 10-29 MPH winds and I expect it
to be a gritty win and Bengals win by at least 7! Bengals have the #1
passing offense and when Ravens win in the first game, Tomlin
waives the white flag in this one and Bengals win and cover! That is
the narrative! Bengals have everything to play for and the Steelers
do not. Despite this being a four game skid, Tomlin knows he wants
to win but not when nothing is on the line. Weather is a factor! In
their last game, the Steelers won 44-38 in a shootout, but a “lower
scoring game” in this one and the Bengals win! The Bengals need a
Dolphins and Broncos loss to get in. They win but do not make the
playoffs! Burrows, great season!
Bengals 24-17 as a road fav!
3. (SUN 10:00am) Lay points -6.5 11-5 Commanders @ 7-9 Dallas
25 TDs, 9 picks, 101.2 rating for Daniels and a four game win streak!
26+ points in their last 4 of 5 games! They are hot! 864 rushing
yards for Daniels, the best for a rookie! RG3 got nothing on this. So
where are we? They will go hard under Quinn in week 18 to secure a
win and their seeding going into the playoffs! #6 seeding is the goal
with a win and I expect the presumptive Rookie MVP to click on all
cylinders in the rout!
Washington 31-17
4. (SUN 5:20pm) Lay points -2.5 Lions 14-2 vs. 14-2 Vikings
Listen, Goff is the best dome QB in the history of the league and at
home against the Vikings! Say what you want against Dan
Campbell, but one thing I know is his team believes in him and their
team and his leadership and that is why at home and him as the
coach and Goff, the Lions take this one! They live and breathe
through him! He takes risks but without risk, there is no reward!
Vikings D is tough but no match in the dome with Goff! Lions figure
this out to win, either ugly or pretty, Lions in a close one but cover!
Lions 41-31 and eclipse the over in a shootout!
Bonus play = over 56: 15-2 Lions
5. (SUN 1:25pm) Lay points -4.5 10-6 Chargers @ 4-12 Raiders
Rolling a hot Streak, the Chargers come in with one mission: To WIN!!
I take Harbaugh in this one: He took a 5 team last year to the playoffs
this year! That is the Harbaugh effect: He wins! It’s simple: If
Steelers lose (and my guess is they will), the Chargers are the #5
seed if they win against the Raiders. For that, I take the Bolts and the
victory!
Chargers 31-13
GOOD HUNTING