12/15/24 NFL. 3-2 Last week, 40-23 63% on the season. Let’s Go
(1) 10:00am Lay -4.5 on 12-1 Chiefs @ 3-10 Browns
Yes, Chiefs finally cover! Chiefs are 5-8 ATS but their D is what will be the factor on Sunday. I
see the Chiefs covering rather impressively on Sunday. Mahomes has 3,189 yards with 20 TDs and 11 picks and their offense is averaging
338.2 yards a game. Kelce has 682 yards receiving on 80 receptions.Chiefs D has been the story this year and I see them giving Jameis
Winston fits and forcing at least 2 picks. Chiefs cover 27-17 on the road
2. (1:25pm) Lay -4 on 8-5 Broncos @ home vs. 6-7 Colts
When I look at the Colts, the Saints, the Falcons and the Bucs, I kind of see the same team in many ways. Broncos beat the Bucs 26-7 at the
Bucs; 33-10 at the Saints; 38-6 against the Falcons. Bo Nix is playing well and the Broncos are on a 3 game win streak at home. Nix has
2,842 yards passing on 17 TDs and 8 picks and is playing with confidence. Broncos have covered in 7 straight games and are +6.3% against the line. Their D is 3 rd in points allowed and 6 th against the rush. Denver is tied with the Steelers at 10-3 ATS.
Broncos 27-13 at home
3. (MNF) Lay -7 on 10-2 Vikings @ home vs. 4-9 Bears
Minnesota has 6 straight wins and will be facing the Bears who are winless on the road. DC Brian Flores will be too much for Caleb
Williams and Vikings passing game is thriving. Vikings D is 17 th vs. 24 th for the Bears. These two teams faced each other in Chicago in week 12 and the Bears played a good game, albeit losing 30-27. Bear’s D was #3 in EPA and that has slid to #29 in the league. I believe Bears will be playing from behind and we should also see lots of points in this one.
4. Lay -4.5 on 11-2 Philadelphia home vs 10-3 Pittsburgh. Stat-wise the Eagles have a better running game, better passing game, better defense, better offense, and are at home trying to out play Detroit to have home field advantage. This is a top play today.
5. MNF. Lay -4.5 on 6-7 Atlanta @ the 2-11 Las Vegas Raiders. Actually this is a mismatch on paper. Atlanta has QB, RB, Offense, Defense advantage. They are also in a fight in the NFC South with Tampa and really need this game. In actuality the Raiders should try and lose because they desperately need to draft Shadeur Sanders as their future QB in the draft. Lay the small number.
GOOD HUNTING AS WE ARE GETTING CLOSE TO PLAYOFFS!