NFL 10/18/24 Picks (Record 13-11)

1. Jags at Bears (6:30AM Sunday from London): Bears -1.5 is the lock!

Let's talk about the obvious improvement of Caleb Williams. Bears have amassed 1,083 yards

in offense the past three weeks and I see more offense on Saturday with Caleb eclipsing 400

yards of passing. Bears QB has caught up to the speed of the NFL. Also of note, given the

appeal of Caleb, London is going to be very loud and that will only make things worse for Trevor

Lawrence.

Caleb is the only Bears QB with multiple 300 yard games as a rookie and the only Bears rookie

QB with 300+ yards and no picks in a single game. In fact, Caleb is only one of five QBs in the

NFL with multiple 300 yard games.

Jags rank 31 in defense, and I look for Caleb to be bombing the ball with over 40 passes. He

will tear up the Jag's D. On the flip side, Bears D is very stingy especially in stopping points with

the #1 Defensive EPA (expected points at beginning of a play vs. expected points at the end of

the play). While the Jags had a good game last week, I don't see any semblance of a repeat in

London.

Line might jump to -3, so I would jump on -1.5.

2. Washington at the Ravens (10:00AM Sunday): Ravens -7

Most intriguing game of the week and it will come down to QB play: 72% of the money is in on

Washington. Washington averages 31 a game and and Baltimore averages 29.4 (#1 and #2 in

the league. As much as I would like the over in this one, I see it going under and staying away.

My bet is Washington. ATS, this will be closer than you think. Ravens have just three wins this

season with only one win by more than three. Commanders are 4-1 ATSand riding a four game

winning streak. The bet here is QB play and I trust Daniels to do his thing and cover. Baltimore

27-24.

Bet best is Commanders +7!

3. Steelers at Raiders (1:05PM Sunday): Steelers -3.

Steelers started hot at 3-0 and have lost 2 straight games. Having said that, just as the

over/under suggests, this will be a low scoring game with Steelers covering. Steelers D have

the best D through the first 5 games and I expect Justin Fields to do just enough offensively and

lean on his D to do the rest. In Pittsburgh’s first three games, Fields had only two throwing TDs

and one rushing TD. In their two losses (Colts and Cowboys), He had 3 throwing TDs and 2

rushing TDs. Raiders got beat down by a similar D last week in the Broncos who beat LV by 16

points. In their wins, Steelers the highest combined total was 30 and their lowest 19.

Steelers 21-13.

4. Atlanta at Panthers (Sunday 1:25PM): Atlanta -6

ATL (3-2) opening line was -3 and has quickly rose to -6 at Panthers (1-4). 97% of the ATS $$$

is on ATL to cover. I agree with the market on this one. ATL’s roster is so much quicker,

experienced and better. Kirk Cousins won’t repeat what he did against the saints, but he is

getting more & more familiar with his targets, progressions, scheme and tendencies. Panther’s

O-line is terrible and ATL’s pass rush is last in sacks per pass attempt, so I see Cousins and his

slate of weapons (London and Pitts) dominating the play in this one. Cousins is 100% healthy

per reports and could surpass his career passing numbers.

The play is ATL to cover: Falcons 31-17.

The other play is ATL to cover 1st half: ATL is a hot first half team but tends to make it close in

the 2nd half. Although I don’t see it against the Panthers, It is worthy to note that ATL lets

teams score on 64% of their drives in the 3rd quarter this year (T-Worst in the NFL).

ATL -3.5 first half is a strong play as well as the game.

Good Hunting