NFL 10/20/24 Picks 4-0 last week(Record 17-11)
NFL Week 7:7
1. Eagles 3-2 @ Giants 2-4 (Eagles line -3; O/U 42.5):Best bet: Eagles at 2.5 (buy 1⁄2 point).
Eagles 22-19
AJ Brown and Devonte Smith are 100% healthy and playing. Saquon
Barkley should have a monster game in his return against his former team.
Saquon is number two in league with 486. Eagles are the more talented
and if Jalen, AJ, Devonte and Saquon perform as they should, they cruise.
2. Detroit 4-1 @ Vikings 5-0 (Detroit +1.5): Battle of the NFC North Best bet: Lions +1.5 on the road.
Lions 31-24
Game of the week! Jared Goff is deadly when playing in domes and I see
him having a huge game. Jared’s pass completion is 76.3% when playing
in a dome and he averages 9.6 yards per pass. Statistically, Lions are the
far superior team with the #1 offense and the #8 defense. Although the
Vikings are 5-0, Lions have the better O-line and run game (David
Montgomery is averaging 4.7 yeards a run and refuses to go down) and
Campbell is 71% ATS against NFC North teams and 35-16 ATS all time.
Only stat that is red zone offense at #16 in the league at 56.59%. I expect
big plays on both sides but Campbell will be the better coach and Goff the
better QB.
3. Panthers 1-5 @ Commanders 4-2 (Commanders -8) Best bet: Commanders -8: Commanders 39-14
This line might scare a few, but not me. Panthers average margin of loss
this season is 20.8 points a game. Commanders are the superior team
facing the worst team in the league. Frankly this line is too low. I see this
as a two touchdown victory (if not more) for the Commanders. Jayden
Daniels is the most likely rookie of the year and is the only rookie to ever
have eclipsed 1,400 passing yards and 300 rushing yards through his first
six games. Carolina run D is terrible and Jayden should have a strong
passing day and even stronger running attack. Even with the Commanders
defense (26th), Panthers will still struggle in this one. Commanders roll
4. Jets 2-4 @ Steelers 4-2 (Jets -2) Best bet: Steelers +2
Steelers 23-20 or 23-13 or Jets 24-23, but within the points at +2.
The line opened at Steelers -2, but with the acquisition of Davante Adams
(Rogers former WR1), the line has flip flopped and the over increased from
36.5 to 38 as well. Jets are on a short week and despite Davante and
Rogers’ former strong chemistry, the combination of a short week and
leaning a new play book, I love the Steelers her as a home dog. Steelers
have the #1 defense and #1 passing defense in the league and I trust
Tomlin here over a rookie head coach in the Jets. Granted Steelers O line
is beat up, but I really trust Steelers D, which will give Rogers happy feat.
At his current age, it is evident that Rogers does not like getting hit and
that’s what he will have on Sunday (pressure and sacks). Also of note,
Zuerlin missed two field goals last week and Steelers is the toughest field
in the league to make field goals.
5. Tennessee 1-4 @ Bills 4-2 (Bills -9) Bills -9
I love this pick as well. Will Levis is 1-6 straight up and against the Spread.
Levis has 7 picks through 5 games and 10 total turnovers. Last week,
Levis had 93 yards in the air and another interception. Tennessee has the
2nd worst offense in the league. On the flip side, the home team has Josh
Allen, who is the only QB in the league to have no picks for the year. He
has been on fire despite two losses on the year. Allen has 1,160 yards and
13 TDs through 6 and I see him torching the Titans this week. The addition
of Amari Cooper will add some depth to the WR position who looks to be
fully up to speed. Ray Davis rushed for 97 yards last week and has a calf
injury but I expect him to play. Khali Shakir will start alongside Cooper who
is Allen’s current WR1. The Bills' defense has allowed 21 points a game
which is 11th. The only area of improvement is rushing yards per game
which is at 22nd, but they have also had 10 turnovers on the season.
6. Chiefs (5-0) @ Niners (3-3): Niners -1.5
This is the most difficult game to cap this week. Game of the week and a
rematch of Super Bowl LVIII. Most “experts” are picking the Chiefs to find
a way (as they always do) to get a win. So let’s look at what is working for
the Chiefs historically in the Reid-Mahomes era. The Chiefs are undefeated
on the season. Mahomes is 11-1-1 off a bye. Reid is 21-4 off a bye. On the
flip side, Mahomes has been great at times and shaky a lot. Mahomes has
thrown at least one pick in each of his first 5 games and has 6 total on the
year. Chiefs are susceptible to accepting FGs vs TDs on Sunday as they
rank 29 (38.99%) in the red zone. Niners are at the same point at 25th
(40%), so what's it going to take? Big plays which both teams are good at.
I see the Niners pulling away early in the first (when Shanahan has
schemed) and letting the Chiefs back in the second half when the better
play caller (Reid) will dice up the Niners D. This however won’t be enough
for the Chiefs on Sunday. Niners will get out early; Chiefs will come back in
the 3rd, but Purdy to Kettle will be the difference maker both in the first and
also the second half. Niners have the #2 offense in the league, are at home
and are more motivated to win the game. Purdy rushes for 20 yards+ in
this one, and connects with Kettle for 2 TDs on the day. Purdy’s legs have
been great as of late. He also has 1,629 yards passing and with 9 TDs and
4 picks. Mahomes has 6 TDs to go with 6 picks and 1,235 passing yards.
Purdy will be Mahomes-esque and pull out the Win.
Best bet: Niners -.05 (or take 1.5 if you Trust my 27-24)Niners 24-23 is the safe play, but Niners 27-24 is the correct play
Good Hunting
