NFL 11/3/24. Last week 5-0. Season Record 26-13 (67%-Ridiculously good!)
Week 9 Picks. Magic Mike on a roll
Are you ready for the full package? Top 5 Locks of the Week!
I am taking all single picks ATS + 1 parlay!
1. (1:25pm) Lay -3.5 on 6-1 Lions @ 6-2 Packers.
Game of the Week and NFC North Showdown. Having said that, I
love the Lions in this one. I would also buy the line to -3 (1/2 point), if
you are more conservative. Dan Campbell is 37-16 ATS (68%).
Detroit only has 5 turnovers the entire season and the #1 offense in
the league at 33.4 points a game. Lions are 6-1 this season, but this
is their only trip outside of the dome all year. Weather may be an
issue in Green Bay and Lambeau and this definitely gives the
Packers a huge home field advantage. Packers are 30-18 ATS at
home and that is very relevant to what happens Sunday.
Jamyr Gibbs has 591 yards on the ground for Lions and averages 6.4
yards a play. C-Amon Ra St. Brown is averaging 10 yards a play and
has 408 yards receiving. Jared Goff has 1,695 yards passing with 13
TDs and 4 picks but historically his play and production show a
significant drop in outdoor games. Lions however are too good and I
believe it will a 10+ point win.
Lions also have the #1 point differential outscoring opponents by 100
on the season. Lions are averaging 44 points a game in their last
three outings, including 54 last week. Lions are also riding a six
game win streak at 6 against the Packers with the second longest win
streak in the league. Lions D will also be a factor with 20 sacks and
10 picks on the season and the #1 third down D. Campbell is the
better coach in this one and has the better quarterback and the Lions
are the better team. Fun game to watch this week!
Lions: 35- 24, even on the road (-3.5 Lions is the play)
Weather will be a factor but only in terms of the winds at 14MPH and
chance of rain.
2. (10:00am) Lay -6 on 6-2 Bills vs. 2-5 Dolphins
Allen has 1,766 yards, 14 TDs and only 1 pick. Buffalo at home
laying only 6 points with Allen & company is a no brainer. In fact, the
line should be more like 12.5. Buffalo is more balanced and their D is
coming together. Bills has the #2 offense and Miami won’t slow them
down. Miami has the #6 D and Bills at #16, but I still see Bills pulling
away in this one.
Bills 31-17 (Bills -6 is the lock of the week)
3. (10:00am) Lay -3.5 on 6-2 Commanders @ 2-6 Giants.
Tough game, but Sports Executioner has you covered
Most see this line as too low, but it really comes down to three things:
Situational football, the run game and pass-block%.
Washington is riding high after arguably the play of the year last week
against the Bears in a last second hail Mary. What the market is
telling us is that the Commanders are better by 6.5 at the Giants.
The line has been fluctuating between -3.5 and -4. Washington has
the #4 offense & #3 in rush yards per game. Jayden Daniels is the
likely rookie of the year with 1,736 yards through the air, 7 TDs and 4
picks, completing at 71.8%. Dan Quinn has his squad clicking, why is
the line so low?
Then I look at the Giants at 2-6 on a short week losing on MNF to the
Steelers. I look at Daniels who is 7-1-1 ATS. Daniels threw for 326
last week but his efficiency at 21-38 for 55% was off, albeit against a
tough Bears D at #5 in the league. Giants give up 331.1 yards a
game. Red zone efficiency against the Giants in week 2 and again
last week against the Bears is what the market is telling us!
Washington was 0-7 against the Giants in week two. False starts
were the biggest reason upsetting their momentum.
This will be test for the Commanders! Dexter Lawrence will be a
monster for the Giants D and is looking like one of the best defensive
players in the league. He will look to disrupt Daniels. Washington
does have a 65% pass-block win-rate however. I look for Washington
to be run-heavy on Sunday against the Giants who rank last in yards
per attempt and give up 141.8 on the ground. Washington averages
165.8 yards a game at #3 in the league, only behind Baltimore and
Philly.
The run will open up the pass and I trust Dan Quinn more.
Situational football, the run game and pass-block% will be the keys to
what should be a very good game!
Commanders 30-20
(-3.5 is a lock, but buying the points to -3 works as well)
4. (10:00am) Take +8.5 on 5-3 Broncos @ 5-3 Ravens.
Line opened at -7.5 and ballooned to -10.5 and currently sits at -8.5.
If you can get +9 or buy the points, take it but pick is good to +8.
Money is pouring into the Broncos. Ravens will be hungry after their
loss last week and should win but won’t cover. Broncos have the 3 rd
best scoring D at 15 pts a game; 3 rd best D at 282.5 yards a game; 2 nd
in league in sacks at 30. Ravens have given up most passing TDs at
17; Ravens are 27 th in the league in pressure rate. Nix is 1-11 when
pressured. Nix has 1,530 yards on the year and 8 TDs (including 3
last week). I believe that Bo Nix will be the factor in this game, just
enough to keep in close.
Broncos 20, Ravens 23
5. (1:05pm) Take +1 on 4-3 Bears @ 4-4 Cardinals.
I fully expect the Bears to come out swinging in this one. Frankly
they are the better team. Caleb Williams has 1,488 yards passing to
go with 9 TDs and 5 picks. His completion percentage is 62.8% on
the season. He struggled last week with 131 yards passing and a
41.7% completion percentage against the Commanders. He will
correct it this week against a suspect Arizona team who ranks 23 on
offense. Granted they are 2-2 at home and 2-2 on the road, but I
seem losing this one outright. Kyler Murray has 1,638 yards passing
to go with 11 TDs and 3 picks.
Bears have the #5 defense in the league. Chicago also has the
better O-Line and the Cards have a hard time against the run
(allowing more than 140 yards a game), facing Bears team that runs
the ball well. Bears will also be able to throw the ball vs. Arizona’s D
(#26). Bears have the 14 th best run defense as well, so I see Kyler
throwing more and making mistakes and throwing 2 picks.
Bears get first road win of the season 35-24, in a higher scoring
game!
As always, GOOD HUNTING
