12-29-24NCAAF 6-4 Last Week 53-35 Season 60%. 16 Bowl Games to go!
There are 16 Bowl games to go with the last 3 CFP so we don’t know as yet who is playing. So for the next 13 games I am going to rate a few of them: 1- 4 Axe Plays, with the Hatchet Plays (3 of them) essentially being 5 AXE Plays. Here we go in order:
WINNER-Monday 12/30 11:30am, ESPN. MUSIC CITY BOWL. 2 Axe Play. Lay-2.5 on 9-3 Missouri vs 8-4 Iowa. Iowa has lost starting QB . QB Cook for Missouri is good. Johnson running back for Iowa is very good.
Tuesday 12/31 9:00am, ESPN. RELIAQUEST BOWL. 3 Axe Play. Lay -13.5 on pissed off 9-3 Alabama vs 7-5 Michigan. QB for Michigan is up in the air? Milroe for Bama is not. QB, RB, WR, Passing, & Rushing, all favor Bama. Also Bama averages 35 ppg vs 22 for Michigan. This is a lot of points in a bowl game, but Bama feels they should have been in the CFP and they will let everyone know why. Lay the #.
Tuesday 12/31 11:00am,CBS. SUN BOWL. 2 Axe Play. + 3 on 6-6 Washington vs 8-4 Louisville. Without Tyler Shough Louisville is week. Passing, TD’s, favor the Huskies. Too many Louisville players opting out. Big O-line for and D Line for Louisville made us adjust this game from HATCHET Play to 2 Axe. Game opened with Louisville favored by -6. Bet all the way down to -2.5 due to Opt outs.
Tuesday 12/31 12:00pm,ABC. CITRUS BOWL. 3 Axe Play. COMPLETE REVERSAL Lay -10 on 9-3 So. Carolina vs. 9-3 Illinois. So Carolina is +96 YPG (Yards Per Game) vs -7 YPG for for South Carolina. Altman QB for Ill has 21 TD’s/5 Int’s vs 17/7 for Sellers at So Carolina. Both teams can run, play good D, and in my opinion both have a chance to win. Lay the points.
Tuesday 12/31 12:00pm, ESPN. TEXAS BOWL. 3 Axe Play. Lay -3.5 on 8-4 Baylor vs 8-4 LSU . This line has moved a lot. It opened with LSU favored by -3 , now LSU gets +3.5. Why because of transfers and Opt outs for the Tigers. Hard to figure this game but Baylor hasn’t lost anyone. Small play on Baylor.
Tuesday 12/31 4:30pm,ESPN. CFP GAME FIESTA BOWL, 2 Axe Play. Take 12-1 Boise State + 11 vs 11-2 Penn State. Yes we know all about how PSU comes from the big bad Bif 10 and Boise comes from the lowly Mtn. West. We also know that PSU dismantled SMU. The difference in this game is Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty their star running back who has 2700 yards running and 20 TD’s. Rushing defense is close for both teams. QB’s are close.
Wednesday 1-1-25 Happy New Year! 10:00am, ESPN. CFP GAME PEACH BOWL. 3 Axe Play. Lay 1-12.5 on 11-2 Texas vs11-2 ASU. Texas D line one of the best in the US, which will frustrate Skateboo and force ASU to start passing early. ASU’s top receiver has Opted out. This could get out of hand early. Lay the points.
Wednesday 1-1-25 2:30pm CFP GAME ROSE BOWL, ESPN. HATCHET PLAY Take +3 (buy) on 13-0 Oregon vs. 10-2 Ohio State. The only edge I see with Ohio State is the revenge factor and they have one terrific reciever, Smith. Oregon has 3 outstanding receivers, two terrific running backs, and an all-star OL. Howard the QB for OSU is good, but Dillon Gabriel the Heisman finalist is in a different class. Both teams play good D, and in game #1 Burch Oregon’s All Star Defensive end did not play, he is ready to roll and OSU has to deal with him and Ulagaleilei who led the Big Ten in Sacks. OSU is now missing starting left tackle and starting center. This game is all business for the Ducks, they are not on vacation. Oregon has the best skill players. Take the points.
Wednesday 1-1-25 5:45 pm CFP GAME SUGAR BOWL, ESPN.2 Axe Play Lay -1.5 on 11-1 Notre Dame vs 11-2 Georgia. SE has all kinds of reason we love this game. 1st and foremost is the fact Georgia’s QB Beck is out for the season!. So now QB, RB, Passing, Rushing, Rushing Defense (#3 Notre Dame), Passing Defense (#2 Notre Dame), and PPG favor the Irish. Get this game while the getting is good at -1.5.
Thursday 1-2-25 4:30 pm GATOR BOWL, ESPN. 4 Axe Play. Lay 13-5 on 9-3 Ole Miss vs 9-3 Duke. In this game the Blue Devils should stick to what they know which is basketball. Ole Miss should dominate this game as they have a terrific QB, can pass, and have the #2 defense against the rush in the country which is about the only thing that Duke can do is run a bit.. Lay the number.
Friday 1-3-25 1:00pm. 1st RESPONDER BOWL, ESPN. Pass. 7-5 Texas State -14 vs 6-6 No. Texas.
Friday 1-3-25 4:30pm. DUKES MAYO BOWL, ESPN. 2 Axe Play. Lay -7 on (Buy 1/2) on 7-5 Minnesota vs 6-6 VT. I am not even sure why VT is in a Bowl game? They have no passing, mediocre rushing game, can’t stop anyone, and will run into a very motivated Gophers team in this bowl.
Saturday 1-4-25 8:00am. BAHAMA BOWL ESPN2. Pass. 8-4 Buffalo vs 8-3 Liberty.
GOOD HUNTING!
The last 3 games are CFP games. Not sure we will have any plays….