12/29/24 NFL. 3-2 Last week, 48-25 67% on the season. Let’s Go

• .   (Sat 10:00am)  Lay the points -4.5 on 9-6 Chargers @ 3-12 Pats

  This is my lock of the week!  The chargers have a 99% chance to get in with a win on Saturday.  Chargers are 10-5 against the spread which ranks them #3 in the league.  Herbert has been playing hot with 10TDs on 3,243 passing yards at 64.7% completion.  Herbert is also 9-0 ATS in Eastern time zones. 

  Chargers 23-16 on the road.  Buy to -4 for more risk averse bettors. 

  2.    (Sat1:30pm) Take the points +3.5 on 9-6  Broncos @ 7-8 Bengals

  Upset Special of the week!  Broncos are 11-4 ATS and would clinch a wild-card spot if they cover.  I’m buying a half a point on this one to +3.5.  It’s hard to go against Burrow who need to win out and also need help to get in.  But it’s more difficult to go against Bo!  If Burrow wears his ugly sweater then we know this means he is going to go hard, but I think Denver’s D is up to the task and Bo will do enough.  Broncos win straight up on the road. 

        Broncos 23-22 on the road

  3.   (Sat 5:10pm) Lay -6.5 on 9-6 Rams @ home vs. 7-8 Cardinals

  Rams got beat up 41-10 in their last meeting but the Rams have found their stride winning 4 in a row  and 7 out of 8 with a gritty win (44-42) against the Bills three weeks ago.  Murray historically throws a lot of picks in December in games against the Rams, and with nothing but pride, I expect them to be loose and gamble.  I also feel the Rams D will be aggressive and gamble as well.  Stafford has 11 TDS and 1 pick in the last 6 games and has thrown for 3,573 and has a 66.6% completion rate.  I expect coaching to be the difference maker with adjustments being key.  McVay will be the better coach on Saturday

  Rams 31-17 at home and will set the stage for Seattle in the finale for the NFC West crown next week. 

  4.   (Sun 10am) Lay -8 on 12-3 Bills @ home vs. 4/11 Jets

  Bills need 1 win to lock up the 2nd seed in the AFC, which will give them home field for the first  two games in the playoffs and something Allen & co will be playing hard to get.  I fully expect this to be a blow-out but with division games anything can happen.  As a result, I’m buying a ½ point to -8 for insurance.  The Bills have scored on 50.3% of their possessions this year (tied for 2nd best).  I expect a more explosive offense this week and Allen to lock up the number 2 see and MVP.  Weather will be a small factor with some rain but at 50 degrees, it will feel like a nice summer day for the Bills. 

  Bills 35-17 at home

  5.   (Sun 10am) Lay -3 on 10-4 Commanders @ home vs. 8-7 Atlanta

  Coming off an impressive win over the Eagles 36-33, the Commanders need one more to clinch a playoff berth.  Money came in late and moved the line from -4.  Rookie sensation Jayden Daniels is the likely Rookie MVP and should shine on Sunday.

  Commanders 31-21 at home

  GOOD HUNTING